Predictions endpoints

POST /v1/predict

Record a falsifiable prediction. See predict.

curl -X POST https://mneva.dev/v1/predict \
  -H "x-mneva-key: $MNEVA_KEY" \
  -H "content-type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "prediction": "the migration will need a hotfix",
    "domain": "schema",
    "confidence": 0.4,
    "basis": "v2 backfill is doing two passes"
  }'

Field	Type	Required	Default
`prediction`	string	yes	—
`domain`	string	yes	—
`confidence`	number 0..1	no	0.5
`basis`	string	no	null

Response:

{ "id": 2, "domain": "schema", "confidence": 0.4 }

POST /v1/resolve

Close out a prediction with what happened. See resolve.

curl -X POST https://mneva.dev/v1/resolve \
  -H "x-mneva-key: $MNEVA_KEY" \
  -H "content-type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "prediction_id": 2,
    "outcome": "correct",
    "actual": "needed to add a default value"
  }'

Field	Type	Required	Default
`prediction_id`	int	yes	—
`outcome`	`correct` \| `incorrect` \| `partial`	yes	—
`actual`	string	yes	—
`surprise`	number 0..1	no	derived

Response:

{ "prediction_id": 2, "outcome": "correct", "surprise": 0.6 }

Errors: 404 prediction X not found, prediction X belongs to another project, prediction X is already resolved, outcome must be one of: correct, incorrect, partial.

GET /v1/predictions/open

List unresolved predictions, oldest first. See predictions_open.

curl "https://mneva.dev/v1/predictions/open?limit=20" -H "x-mneva-key: $MNEVA_KEY"

Query param	Type	Default
`limit`	int 1..50	20

Response:

{
  "predictions": [
    { "id": 2, "prediction": "...", "domain": "...", "confidence": 0.4, "basis": null, "created_at": "..." }
  ]
}

GET /v1/calibration

Per-domain track record. See calibration.

curl "https://mneva.dev/v1/calibration?since_days=30" -H "x-mneva-key: $MNEVA_KEY"

Query param	Type	Default
`since_days`	int >= 1	null (all-time)

Response shape (see calibration for the full example):

{
  "total_resolved": 12,
  "window_days": null,
  "domains": [
    {
      "domain": "schema",
      "n": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.86,
      "correct": 6,
      "incorrect": 1,
      "partial": 0,
      "mean_confidence_when_correct": 0.62,
      "mean_confidence_when_incorrect": 0.40,
      "confidence_gap": 0.22,
      "mean_surprise": 0.18
    }
  ]
}

Domains are sorted by n descending.